Future Prospects for Bears in Switzerland
The return of brown bears to Switzerland has so far been limited to isolated visits by individual bears: only males have been recorded, most of which moved on after a short time. Without the immigration of females, a stable population cannot be established. The future development will depend on the population density in Trentino, the ecological connectivity of the Alpine regions and social acceptance of the large predator.
Male Bears in Switzerland – Roamers Without Mates
To date, only male bears have been recorded in Switzerland. As with most animal species, males tend to disperse further than females. Most bears left Switzerland after a relatively short stay of a few days to a few months, presumably because they did not find female counterparts for mating. One exception was M29, who remained in Switzerland for over three years and is also the only confirmed bear recorded outside the canton of Grisons. Since 2020, however, he has been living west of Lake Maggiore in Italy. The example of M29 shows that in large parts of Switzerland, the presence of a male can be expected at any time. The fact that he is now in Italy and not in Switzerland is probably more due to chance than to the beauty of Italy. However, M29 is isolated from the rest of the population in this region, and it cannot be ruled out that he will disperse again in search of mates.
In 2005, JJ2 was the first bear to be sighted in Switzerland since the species had been eradicated. In 2005, JJ2 was the first bear to be sighted in Switzerland since the species had been eradicated.
© Jon Gross / AJF GR
When Will the Females Arrive?
There is no clear answer to this question. In principle, two different scenarios are conceivable as to how female bears will find their way into Switzerland:
- The gradual expansion of the area occupied by female bears (in this case, from the Trentino population)
- A spontaneous immigration of a single female directly from Trentino
The area occupied by female bears in Trentino remained roughly the same size for nearly 20 years and has only nearly doubled in size in the last four years, presumably as a result of increasing population density. According to the Trentino annual report, in 2024 the females claimed an area of 2,019 square kilometres for themselves, while the males roamed an area of 34,370 square kilometres in the same year. These figures are a very rough estimate, but they clearly illustrate the difference between the sexes. It may still take several years or even decades to close the gap between the area covered by the females and the Swiss border.
However, there are also a few reports from Scandinavia and Slovenia suggesting that individual females can disperse over distances as great as their male counterparts. In this case, Switzerland would certainly be within reach of dispersing female bears from Trentino. So far, no such dispersal of female bears from Trentino has been observed, but it cannot be entirely ruled out in the future.
Temporal development of the area occupied by females (left) and the area roamed by male bears from Trentino (right) from 2008 to 2024.
Over the past four years, the females have begun to slightly expand their core area (where they reproduce). If the development in Trentino continues as it has over the past 20 years, the likelihood of female bears visiting Switzerland will also increase.
Note the different scales on the vertical axis. The males roam a much larger area than the females, which have so far only been recorded in the core area.
Data: Trentino annual reports.
Inbreeding as Potential Threat
The population in Trentino is small and isolated. A connection to the Dinaric-Pindos population is crucial for the long-term survival of the brown bear in the Alps. This means that Italy, Austria and Slovenia have a special responsibility. Switzerland lies at the edge of the distribution range but can still contribute to the conservation of bears in the Alps. However, if the population in Italy remains so small and isolated, genetic variability will be lost and the survival of the population will be threatened. It is therefore essential to preserve functioning dispersal corridors and, where barriers exist, to restore connectivity through appropriate measures. The brown bear in the Alps only has a chance if it can survive as a metapopulation – with connections to the population in the Dinaric Mountains.
Prevention Measures
Per un ritorno di successo dell'orso in Svizzera, è fondamentale continuare a puntare su misure di sensibilizzazione per una coesistenza tra uomo e orso che sia il più possibile priva di conflitti. Le seguenti misure di protezione e regole di comportamento si sono dimostrate efficaci in Svizzera e all'estero:
- Contenitori per rifiuti a prova d’orso
- Recinzioni elettriche e cani da guardiania (per il bestiame e gli apiari)
- Non attirare gli orsi
- Non lasciare all'esterno resti di cibo o mangimi
- Rimanere sui sentieri escursionistici
- Tenere i cani al guinzaglio
Livestock guard dog in the Valais Rappental valley Livestock guard dog in the Valais Rappental valley
© Samuel Trümpy
Protection through electric fences Protection through electric fences
© KORA
Bear-proof container on the «Ofenpass» (GR) Bear-proof container on the «Ofenpass» (GR)
© KORA
Information Sheets
More detailed information on the correct behaviour in bear habitats and during bear encounters can be found in the individual information sheets published by the Canton of Grisons.
Outlook
The Swiss Bear Concept (in German) assumes that bears will return to Switzerland in the medium term.
Prevention measures help ensure that bears remain in their preferred habitat in forests or mountains and stay wary of humans. This is one of the key prerequisites for minimising conflicts between humans and bears in a densely populated cultural landscape such as Switzerland.
In addition, human acceptance plays an equally important role. Recent years have shown that, in the case of behaviourally conspicuous individuals, the generally positive acceptance can quickly turn into widespread rejection. Therefore, alongside the prevention of damage and the avoidance of habituation to human food sources, consistent management of problem bears is essential.
Switzerland's semi-natural landscapes provide suitable habitats for brown bears in many regions. However, it remains to be seen whether we humans are prepared to share this habitat – the use of which we often take for granted – with such an impressive and, in rare cases, dangerous predator.. Continuous awareness-raising among the public through transparent communication, straightforward and rapid compensation for any damage caused, and ongoing, close monitoring and assessment of the bears living in Switzerland by specialists are essential prerequisites for a successful return of the species to Switzerland. The point is not to fool anyone — so that we don’t end up doing the bear a real disservice — but to create the conditions that allow this symbolic animal to regain a foothold, and not only on coats of arms, in restaurant names, or in place names.
(Last sentence translated from German proverbs.)