On The Effectiveness Of Shooting Wolves
From September 1, 2024, until January 31, 2025, cantons may regulate wolf populations as a preventive measure, with the approval of the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN). This management approach was first implemented in December 2023 for a two-month period. As the pasturing season has ended, data on livestock predation rates may offer insights into the effectiveness of last winter’s regulation. We explain why it is still too early from a scientific point of view to assess its effectiveness.
Currently, it is too early to scientifically analyse the full impact of these wolf regulations. Scientifically relevant conclusions will require several years of data. Only then, and by including comparison areas and periods, is it possible to make statements about the effects of the regulations. Furthermore, a comparison with areas in which no regulation has taken place would be important in order to be able to make statements about the effects independently of other factors.
In the present context, addressing urgent questions is important. However, it is important to emphasise that time is needed to develop scientifically valid answers, in particular to ensure that sufficient data can be collected. For example, citing figures from isolated cases—such as the number of wolves shot and the resulting changes in livestock predation during the recent alpine pasture season—offers limited insight into the overall effectiveness of preventive shooting.
We have to be careful with simple correlation analyses, because they do not allow us to separate cause from effect. This is known as the stork effect. There are many potentially confounding and uncontrolled variables that could have the same effect. Each situation needs a comprehensive assessment over an extended period, with comparisons to other cases, considering factors such as prey availability, herd protection measures, abandonment of an alpine pasture or the relocation of livestock to a new region. This broader perspective is essential for drawing reliable conclusions about the effectiveness of such measures.
The validity of international studies in the Swiss context is also limited. The conditions prevailing in one country are difficult to transpose to another, and each country applies its own procedures. Comparisons are therefore of limited value. However, a systematic review of the international literature will provide an overview of all the relevant studies and serve as a basis for our future analyses.
Over the coming years, KORA plans to study the effectiveness of shooting wolves, guided by scientific evidence. The aim is to gain insights into its impact on livestock predation, wolf pack dynamics, and public acceptance of wolves. The results of these studies will provide a solid foundation for effective wolf management, balancing the needs of livestock farmers with the conservation of wolf populations and promoting a low-conflict coexistence.
